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Clinton Wins Big, But Math is Troubling:
Clinton's long, arduous campaign might have ended abruptly if Obama delivered a knock-out blow in either state. Instead, Clinton will fight on for at least the next seven weeks, until Pennsylvania votes on April 22. To get an idea of how long a period that is in political years, the Iowa caucuses — remember them? — were only eight weeks ago.
But the March 4 results have not changed Obama's strongest talking point and reality point for why Clinton should exit the Democratic race: Math. It appears numerically impossible for her to overtake his lead among elected delegates. |
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Neither Obama nor Clinton can win the 2,025 delegates required for nomination without some combination of elected delegates. Given the remaining contests — many with electorates favorable to Obama — Obama's existing hundred-plus delegate lead, and the rules by which Democrats apportion delegates, it is almost a political and mathematical certainty that Obama will have an elected delegate lead at the end of the process, barring dramatic, unforeseen circumstances.
Obama has of late signed up more superdelegates than Clinton in part because they are swayed by his lead in elected delegates. Yet unless there is a significant change in the overall dynamic — a major Obama blunder or scandal for example — he is likely to continue accruing superdelegates regardless of Clinton's big March 4 wins.
For The Democrats, The Fight Goes On:
Clinton can now argue that, after 11 straight victories for Barack Obama, she managed to stop his momentum, and that a new phase of the campaign has begun. And for the first time, the Obama camp seemed stumble-prone. Reports that Austan Goolsbee, Obama's senior economic adviser, told Canadian officials that Obama's anti-NAFTA rhetoric was more about political positioning than a real policy change seemed to hurt. Certainly it gave Clinton a closing-days issue to exploit.
The Clinton camp has long contended that Democrats need to nominate a candidate who can win in the big states. Some of the large states she has carried - California, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, to name four - will obviously be in the Democratic column in November. Ohio, however, is the very definition of a pivotal swing state. Victory there in 2000 would have made Al Gore the president. Kerry's failure there cost him the presidency in 2004.
Democrats will probably wish their own nomination were decided and worry that the continuing campaign will put their party at a disadvantage.
Victorious McCain Turns Sights on Democrats:
McCain, in a victory speech after winning nominating votes in Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island, highlighted the war in Iraq, the economy, and energy independence as key areas that he will focus on in a general election against an as-yet undetermined Democratic opponent. |
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"Tonight, my friends, we have won enough delegates to claim with confidence, humility, and a great sense of responsibility that I will be the Republican nominee for president of the United States," McCain said to applause in a Dallas hotel ballroom decorated with red, white and blue balloons and two large American flags. McCain, 71, has taken criticism from the Democrats for saying the United States might be in Iraq for 100 years, a statement he later said should be seen in the context of ongoing U.S. troop deployments in South Korea and Japan.
Obama and Clinton have pledged to start bringing troops home in 2009. McCain has said U.S. troops must stay until Iraq is sufficiently stable to bring the troops home. |
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Paul and Kucinich Easily Defeat Primary Challengers:
Reps. Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich glided to victories in their House races yesterday, despite some tense moments earlier this year when it looked like the two long-shot presidential candidates would lose their seats to primary challengers.
In Texas, Republican Paul easily defeated his primary opponent, Chris Peden, a certified public accountant and city councilman from Friendswood, south of Houston who had campaigned partly on the notion that Paul’s run for the White House made him a celebrity with zealous followers but hadn’t done anything to improve what Peden called his effectual lawmaking. With all but two precincts counted in his reliably Republican district, Paul had 70% of the vote to Peden’s 30%. He has no Democratic challenger.
In Ohio, Democrat Kucinich topped his main primary opponent, Cleveland Councilman Joe Cimperman, who similarly defined Kucinich as an absentee congressman with a poor record on major legislation. With more than a third of the vote counted, Kucinich had 52% of the vote while Cimperman collected nearly 33%.
Clinton, Obama Wrangle for Super Delegate Support:
Beyond winning the popular vote in Tuesday’s US primaries, the key to securing a party’s nomination is a candidate’s ability to win enough support from party delegates to gain the nomination. On the Republican side, John McCain did just that on Tuesday with victories in Ohio, Texas, Vermont, and Rhode Island to exceed the 1,191 Republican delegate votes needed to capture his party’s endorsement. |
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What are known as super delegates may play a critical role in determining the Democratic nominee. Of the 50 states holding primaries or caucuses, only Texas, which voted yesterday, holds both a primary and a caucus. “The super delegates have been until this election something that’s not really talked about a lot. It’s been part of the process after 1972, and it roots back in the notion that there’s always some unease about whether the American people will get it right. These are the party officials that hold special prominence given that right to possess these delegate positions. But it’s becoming more controversial, not because that it’s something new, but because that it may make a difference in what happens in the outcome of the election,” Shawn Parry-Giles, University of Maryland communications professor explains.
With McCain Atop Ticket, Talk Shifts To Spot No. 2:
Now that Senator John McCain is headed to the nomination, he can begin thinking seriously about perhaps the most important decision he will have to make as the Republican presidential nominee: the selection of a running mate.
Several governors have been mentioned as potential running mates; their executive experience and ability to cast themselves as Washington outsiders are perceived as strengths. They include Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, an early supporter; Charlie Crist of Florida, whose last-minute endorsement helped Mr. McCain win that crucial swing state’s primary; Jon Huntsman Jr. of Utah, an early supporter despite Mitt Romney’s popularity in his state; and Mark Sanford of South Carolina, whose conservative reputation could help Mr. McCain with the base but who did not endorse him.
Voters Overwhelm Texas Caucus Officials:
DALLAS -- Caucus-goers in one heavily African-American precinct here braved long waits and lines out the door to support Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, overwhelming organizers who struggled to interpret party rules. The confusion at the caucus site was representative of voter problems that emerged Tuesday in both Texas and Ohio, where a surge of voters strained systems that weren't ready to handle such a large turnout. In Ohio, the Obama campaign successfully filed a court complaint asking that some polling places be kept open late due to ballot shortages.
Clinton supporter Carol King-Arnold introduced a resolution to abolish the caucus system, which she said ran counter to the principles of the secret ballot. The resolution passed amid mass confusion, receiving support from backers of both candidates. Many Obama supporters abstained. The resolution will be forwarded to the next level, the senatorial district and county conventions later this month. Earlier in the day, at the Reverchon Park Recreation Center near downtown, primary voters in this diverse neighborhood were more evenly split. Lynn Brink, a 47-year-old teacher, said she preferred Sen. Clinton because of her experience. "She's been around," Ms. Brink said, adding that she would happily vote for Sen. Obama in the general election if he wins the nomination. "It's kind of a no-lose situation," she said. |
White Working-Class Voters Fuel Clinton's Comeback:
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) revved up her stalled presidential campaign in Ohio and Texas by recapturing white working-class voters who had swayed toward Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) in the Wisconsin primary two weeks ago.
The exit poll also held preliminary evidence that Clinton's hard-hitting campaign over the past week may have paid dividends: Clinton captured Texas voters who made up their minds in the last three days by more than 20 percentage points. She attracted those voters by double-digits in Ohio. More broadly, Clinton exceeded her post-Super Tuesday performances among both men and women, including white women, Democrats, independents, seniors and Roman Catholics. While Clinton outpaced Obama by better than 4 to 1 among older Hispanics, Obama ran nearly evenly with Clinton among those younger than 30. Obama won among all younger voters in both states, as he has in almost every Democratic caucus and primary. Clinton won Hispanic women in Texas by 40 percentage points, Hispanic men by 31 points. A big change of the night was among lower-educated white voters. In Ohio, white voters without college degrees, who made up nearly half of the electorate, supported Clinton by about 3 to 1 last night, driven by questions about Obama's electability, race and experience.
McCain: Every Vote is in Play:
DALLAS -- All but written out of the presidential race last summer, John McCain crossed the finish line for the Republican nomination in first place Tuesday night, when he won the final batch of delegates he needed to clinch. As former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, his chief remaining opponent, bowed out of the race and told his supporters it was time to "hit the reset button" and get behind McCain, the Arizona senator was making plans to visit the White House today for what amounts to his party's coronation -- the endorsement of President Bush.
"We have won enough delegates to claim with confidence, humility and a great sense of responsibility that I will be the Republican nominee," McCain said after the strains of his now-familiar "Rocky" theme had faded out. McCain vowed to compete in states Republicans have written off and to reach out to "communities of all ethnic backgrounds and income levels."
McCain Advisers Say He'll Vie for California:
Just hours before McCain wrapped up the nomination Tuesday with GOP primary victories in Vermont, Rhode Island, Ohio and Texas, his aides said the Arizona senator will campaign in California later this month. His only remaining GOP opponent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, dropped out of the race Tuesday night.
Democrats scoff at the idea that McCain will compete fiercely in a state that has been reliably "blue" - Democratic - in recent presidential elections. "What I suspect is happening is that McCain's advisers are trying to fuel the speculation so it will get California donors to give to the campaign," said California Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres. "It's a bait and switch by McCain's folks to raise as much money as they can in California and say, 'We are taking the state seriously,' and then they'll use the money instead in states like Ohio and Florida."
"John McCain will give a Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama a serious run in any purple state like California."
While even his backers acknowledge winning California is a long shot, McCain has some advantages over other recent GOP candidates. He's well known in California, has visited frequently, and has even joked about being the state's "third senator." His willingness to buck his party on certain issues could help him with the state's key swing voting group, independents.
"California is an uphill fight for any Republican, but John McCain is much better positioned to make the state competitive than any of the other potential nominees would have been," said Dan Schnur, a GOP strategist who was McCain's communications director in 2000. "The same things that have caused him some difficulties among Republican Party voters - illegal immigration, global warming, etc. - give him an opportunity to reach out to swing voters out here." |
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